Investment bank Beltone Financial Holding said that Hesham Talaat Mostafa Holding, Porto Group, Heliopolis Housing and Development and Nasr City for Housing and Development are the main beneficiaries at this stage of the real estate financing initiative launched by the Central Bank worth 50 billion pounds.
In cooperation with the Central Bank of Egypt, the Egyptian government launched 3 initiatives to support the industrial sector and the housing sector and to promote investments. The initiatives are as follows:
1) The first initiative is to provide 100 billion pounds in financing at a 10% diminishing interest rate for large and medium-sized factories, while giving priority to industries that the state hopes to exist to bridge the import gap. This initiative will be implemented by state-owned banks and joint banks with which the state has contributions. These banks will be compensated for the low interest rate for these loans by both the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance.
2) Initiatives also include dropping accumulated interest of about 31 billion pounds from 5148 troubled factories and removing these factories also from the negative list of the Central Bank if 50% of the principal is paid off. We point out that the total size of the basic debt of these troubled factories amounts to about 6 billion pounds, according to the Central Bank of Egypt.
3) The third initiative, with a value of 50 billion pounds, to finance middle-income housing units with a 10% interest, with installments of up to 20 years and at an interest rate of 10%.
Beltone said in a recent report that real estate financing would bridge the financing gap in the real estate market between those who purchased units in the residential real estate market (for example through real estate developers on the scheme) for investment purposes but they have difficulty in monetizing their investments and those who cannot Purchase of ready-made units for delivery (such as residential property buyers).
That is why Beltone believes that the growth of real estate financing will help revive the resale market, as it will create greater demand for the residential real estate market among developers. We expect most of the companies we cover will benefit from the initiative, especially real estate developers who already have completed projects, but with a low occupancy rate.
She added that Talaat Mostafa Group, Porto Group, Heliopolis Housing and Development and Nasr City for Housing and Development are major beneficiaries, at this stage, with the initiative targeting middle-income housing groups.
At the same time, the recent negotiations between the real estate developers and the Central Bank were that the areas of the units to be funded under the initiative range from 150 square meters with a price range of 2 million pounds and 3 million pounds, and if approved, this will have a positive impact on the market Resale to other real estate developers, including Sodic and Palm Hills.
Moreover, Beltone confirmed that the government seeks to reduce pressure on the local currency, which makes volatility limited in the range of 16 pounds against the dollar.
She said that the initiatives related to the industrial sector confirm her vision that all policies are directed to maintain the strength of the local currency without any kind of intervention in the market, but through efforts to support the flow of revenues in dollars and limit the growth of the import bill while improving the private sector investments while improving demand rates.
The report ruled out that the pound would face any pressure, and that it would continue in this way during 2020, with limited fluctuations in the range of 16 pounds against the dollar.
She explained that the main factors behind convincing the stability of the pound come from expectations of a gradual growth in private spending rates and a moderate recovery in capital spending lending rates as well as an improvement in the oil balance during 2020. We see a range of 16 – 15.9 pounds against the dollar as a maximum level for the price of the pound to move upward.
She indicated that the positive demand for investment and consumer confidence with this strength of the pound price would reduce the demand for buying the dollar, which would support the continuation of this trend for the main indicators for a longer period.
And she saw that the initiatives confirm support for the recovery of investments in the industrial sector and the private sector, which is the last stop of the Egyptian economic reform program, which will positively reflect on the stock market.
Beltone said that this decision, along with the policy of reducing interest rates followed during the last period and reducing the price of natural gas for factories, would provide an outlet for the industrial sector, and open the way for the growth of factories that achieve revenues less than one billion pounds per year, which are not covered by our coverage.
Moreover, this will support the recovery of capital spending by the end of 2020, which is another positive indicator, in our view. We point out that the growth of investments led by the private sector is essential after any agreement to obtain a loan from the International Monetary Fund.
And I expect the PMI to improve by the second half of 2020.
At the same time, the company considered that it was too early to assess the full impact of the decision on the banks; however, it expected an improvement in the bank’s business volumes, with a negative impact on its profitability.
We see that the Central Bank’s initiative to finance the industrial sector is positive for the growth in the volume of banks ’business, given the abundant levels of liquidity and the adequacy of their capital base. However, we expect profitability to be negatively affected by low margins and income from commissions that banks will achieve from eligible entities, despite the compensation plans proposed by the Central, despite not being disclosed to date. It is worth noting that the participation of banks in this initiative is not binding, which means that decisions regarding the concentration of the business portfolio and price and profit plans are not affected by these initiatives. However, we expect a neutral impact on the banks, as the troubled factories are exempt from paying the accrued interest, whether this will be done through full financing or write-offs. We expect the quality of assets to improve in light of the low debt burdens and expanded opportunity to reschedule loans.
A positive impact of the mortgage initiative on the companies participating in the initiative, and a slight negative impact on the two mortgage arms of CI Capital and Hermes
Returning to the Real Estate Finance Initiative, Beltone saw that it would be positive for real estate companies as the real estate financing initiative is a way to bridge the financing gap in the secondary real estate market, specifically represented by Talaat Mostafa Group, Porto Group, Heliopolis Housing and Development and Nasr City for Housing and Development.
The company expected a positive impact of this initiative on the mortgage finance companies that will participate in the initiative, despite the need for the central bank to disclose interest rates on lending.
The central bank said that interest rates on mortgage finance initiative loans are 10%, decreasing.
Beltone warned of a slight negative impact on the mortgage sponsors of both CI Capital and Hermes due to their current business model that is not based on the initiative of the Central Bank, with targeting a large part of their business portfolio to the customer base from the upper middle class and coinciding with the contribution The real estate finance sectors account for the largest share of the companies ’business portfolio, which may increase the competitive strength in interest rates. It is worth noting that the Central Bank has not yet revealed the size of lending to middle income groups, which will play a vital role in determining the direction of each company’s strategy.
Talaat Mostafa Group is enjoying its development of integrated services projects for customers, whether for housing, and enjoying full services, commercial, entertainment and sports, and its trend in the recent period to turn it into smart cities, in cooperation with Chinese Huawei, visible from the cities of Al-Rehab.
Or to invest in housing units in the projects of Hesham Talaat Moustafa Group, given its high liquidity and demand to acquire them both in the primary market, where the company achieved more than 14 billion pounds in sales in 9 months of the current year, and the best-selling Egyptian real estate company, or In the secondary market among clients.
Hesham Talaat Moustafa 